Colts-Jaguars preview

The Colts and Jaguars square off Sunday in Jacksonville.

Indy destroyed San Francisco during a dominating 27-7 win that "woke up the monster." Now, the Colts head to sunny Florida to challenge a hapless Jacksonville squad headed straight to nowhere and considered the worst team in the NFL.

The numbers tell the story on offense. The Jaguars are dead last in total offense, 29th in passing offense, and 30th in rushing offense.

By contrast, the Colts are 12th overall in total offense, 27th in passing offense, and 4th in rushing offense.

On defense, the Jaguars are statistically better: 19th overall and 9th against the pass. But they're last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 167 yards per game. They've also scored only 28 points his season while giving up a whopping 92 points. Their 9.3 points per game is last among NFL teams.

Defensively, the Colts are 14th overall (by yardage), 11th against the pass, and 26th against the run. Indy averages 22.7 points per game--17th in the league.

The Colts' defensive numbers aren't overwhelmingly dominant, but the running defense vs. running game metric favors the Colts. Still, Jacksonville has given Indy fits, especially of late:



So recent history is on the Jags' side, although it's worth mentioning two of those wins came during the "Lost Year" in which Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky started at QB (Kerry Collins made a cameo that season, but not against the Jags).

The X-factor in this game is Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a certified Colts killer and has been since coming into the league. Check out his last few performances against Indy:



Jones-Drew gives Colts defenders fits; I don't expect that to change, especially if the Jaguars can get anything going with their passing game. They will start Blaine Gabbert after turning the offense over to Chad Henne. Gabbert has yet to show NFL-caliber quarterback play, but he is evasive and could be a handful if he ever learned to make an accurate throw.

On the Colts side, Reggie Wayne has been a perennial pain in the butt for the Jaguars. Jacksonville just seems to be one of those teams Wayne excels against no matter the personnel. Maybe it's the Florida connection; I can't say for sure.



Realistically, the Colts shouldn't have any trouble with Jacksonville; the Jaguars are a bad football team made worse by new ownership, a new GM, and a new head coach. It's not because the new leadership is incompetent or terrible at its job; it's the reality of transition in player personnel, philosophy, and game management. The Jags are where the Colts were a few short seasons ago--except their franchise quarterback is nowhere to be found.

Jacksonville has always given Indy problems--take last year's early loss at Big Oil, for example. I just don't see that happening again this week given last week's phenomenal performance and the sense that things are starting to "click" for the Colts. The Jaguars are in too much disarray right now, though I expect they'll win a game or two later this season.

I fully expect the Horseshoes to win this one and enter next week's tough home game against Seattle at 3-1.

Colts Observations, Week 1 vs. Raiders

"The Mayor" runs for office. The Colts signed Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason to bolster the running game, but second-year 'back Vick Ballard emerged as the starter. He was effective, running 13 times for 63 yards--very close to the Colts' desired average of 5.0 yards per carry (Ballard was at 4.8 YPC). I loved Ballard last year, and the 2013-2014 campaign looks promising.

Little bit of Bradshaw. We really didn't see much from Ahmad Bradshaw. He had seven carries, got dropped for a loss on his first carry and also got stuffed on a third-and-short. His most memorable run was a 10-yarder in which he leveled a couple Raiders defenders before going down. I think the Colts are starting him off slowly, given that he's coming off an injury.

Spectacular start. Early on, this looked like a mismatch as Andrew Luck and the offense carved up the Raiders. Two drives produced back-to-back touchdowns, jolting the Colts off to a 14-0 lead. Luck's first touchdown pass to Ageless Reggie Wayne was a thing of beauty; his second TD pass involved a great move from Dwayne Allen. They were running the ball well, protecting Luck, and controlling the tempo. At first.

And then... The wheels fell off. On four straight drives, the Colts produced zero points, three punts, and a turnover on downs. All the while, the Raiders hit their stride, taking a shocking 17-14 lead. Luck was continually sacked (the Raiders dropped him four times), the Colts couldn't get anything going, and at one point faced a third and 31 thanks to a penalty and a sack. Not to the mention that the revamped defense struggled mightily.

The Big Miss. I can't understate how big Sebastian Janikowski's miss just before halftime was. Had he connected on that kick, the Raiders would've been able to kick a field goal at the end of the game. Instead, they needed a touchdown.

Take the free 20 yards, kid. I love Greg Toler. He's a guy who always seems to have his nose on the ball. After intercepting Terrelle Pryor, he decided to take the ball out of the endzone. The result? Vontae Davis got flagged for a low block, and the Colts were backed up at the 11. A touchback hurts no one.

He didn't have a carry, but he's still special. Donald Brown didn't run the ball or catch a pass, but he did make a nice tackle on special teams. When a guy like that--a former first-round pick--is willing to buy in for that, you've gotta like it.

Third drive's a charm. For the first two drives, the Raiders showed some flashes, but it was the third drive that signaled the Colts were in for a long afternoon. Pryor had runs of 9, 29, and 13 yards on the drive. The Raiders were so efficient--or the Colts defense so inept--that Oakland never even faced a third down on the scoring drive. At the end, after Darren McFadden squeezed his way into the endzone, it was apparent that we had a ballgame.

Not quite as #Boomstick as usual. The usually solid Pat McAfee had a pretty mediocre day by his standards. Three punts averaged 39 yards, including a 33-yard stinker that was his first boot of the day.

The end of the half was brutal. Just check out my notes on the Colts' and Raiders' final drives of the first half:

Fourth Colts drive

Reggie Wayne with a one-handed catch for two yards. Luck sacked on next play. Third and long forthcoming. Luck pass to right eludes leaping Darrius Heyward-Bey. First incompletion of the day for Luck. Back-to-back three and outs.

Fifth Raiders drive

Drive starts with poor tackling from Colts and a first down catch by tight end for 19 yards. Read option goes nowhere. Loss of three. Pryor misfires on second and long. Third and 13 now. Eight-yard pass brings out Janikowski for 48-yard attempt. Shanked it.

Sure they had four sacks, but they should've had five. In the Colts' first drive of the second half, Luck faced heavy pressure and should've been sacked. Instead, he somehow powered his way out of a sure tackle and got free for a 9-yard run that netted a first down. Think of the run as a preview of coming attractions.

Reggie Wayne. 8 catches, 96 yards, touchdown. That is all.

No Pryor restraint. The Indiana Hoosiers (basketball) had no idea Syracuse would use that 2-3 matchup zone last year. The Indiana Hoosiers (football) were surprised that Navy ran the option yesterday. The Indianapolis Colts appeared equally befuddled by Terrelle Pryor's ability to run. That's all the guy has. Seriously...did you see some of his attempts to throw downfield? The Colts seemed ill-prepared to face a running QB, something that doesn't bode well for future showdowns against Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. Pryor ran 13 times for 112 yards.

Fourth and done. The Colts decided to go for a fourth and short just past midfield, a fantastic idea considering Ahmad Bradshaw got stuffed for no gain on third and short. The play call was some kind of rollout pass with Luck, but the Raiders were all over it and Luck got sacked for a 13-yard loss. The Raiders capitalized on the good field position by scoring a touchdown on the next drive. It was awesome.

Catching a break. Kind of. But not really. When Darren McFadden caught a long pass for a touchdown, Colts fans collectively slapped their foreheads. Then, they collectively screamed that McFadden didn't make the catch. A replay proved them right, but it didn't matter because the Colts defense failed to capitalize on the second chance and surrendered a touchdown later in the drive. Again, it was awesome.

"Pryor runs into old man, doesn’t get first down." My note on Terrelle Pryor's five-yard run on third and six, in which he ran over a game official while falling just short of the first down. The drive resulted in a Janikowski field goal.

Our quarterback can run, too! With the Colts trailing 17-14, Andrew Luck drove the team down the field. Facing third and 4 at the Raiders 19, he saw the middle of the field open up and sprinted 19 yards to the endzone. I breathed a sigh of relief.

He was BUTT OPEN. My brother often used this phrase to describe a receiver who was unbelievably uncovered. So, tight end Jerud Mastrud was butt open when he caught a 41-yard pass on the Raiders' final drive. Fortunately, Mastrud has cement in his feet and was tackled before he could go all the way.

Finally, some pressure. Robert Mathis finally got to Terrelle Pryor at a most opportune time, sacking him for a 16-yard loss and turning first and goal at the 8 to second and goal at the 24. Of all the good things Pryor did, it's mistakes like these that killed him. Similar situations included interceptions, some delay of game penalties and other instances of poor game management/awareness.

As it began, so it ended. Terrelle Pryor's first drive of the game ended with an interception. His last drive of the game ended with an interception. That's symmetry, baby.

Colts Observations, Week 16

"You kiddin' me? Playoffs?" They're in. Unbelievably, unexpectedly, and unfathomably, they're in. The Ghost of Mediocre Seasons Past takes the form of Jim Mora, who delivers the greatest postgame monologue in the history of professional football:



And this is why you lose. Kansas City--a team that battered the Colts all game long with a two-headed running game--decided to go for it on fourth and inches with a quarterback sneak. This is why you lose.

And this is why you lose, part II. Interception returned for touchdown. Interception thrown in the end zone. Fumble in the red zone. Missed field goal. Holding penalty. False start. This is why you lose.

Not their best day. Perhaps the only reason the Colts won this game was because they were playing Kansas City (see above). Offensively, they were out of sync. Defensively, our run defense transformed into "run matadors" (term courtesy Nate Nocton via Tony Latello) who stepped aside so KC's backs could find daylight.

352 and 13. This is how many rushing yards Kansas City ground out...and how many points they managed to score. Perhaps I should've titled this section, "And this is why you lose, part III."

Vontae Davis intercepted two passes. The final box score doesn't note this, but Vontae Davis intercepted two passes. Somebody wrote "pass interference" next to one of them by mistake.

We're going streaking! At one point, Andrew Luck lit up the scoreboard by throwing eleven straight incompletions. He then proceeded to hit 6 of 8 passes on what turned out to be the game-winning drive.

No hand? No problem! Even with his hand wrapped in a hard cast and soft foam shell, Jerrell "The Mountie" Freeman led the team in tackles. Actually, that would feel like more of an accomplishment if the Colts hadn't given up 352 rushing yards.

Could you find one that fits? Brady Quinn's helmet didn't look like it fit. Actually, Quinn himself didn't look like he fit in the NFL either. That's too bad. His fantasy football logline from ESPN: "Quinn completed 10-of-22 passes for 162 yards and two interceptions Sunday against the Colts. He also added 11 rushing yards on five carries." ESPN's fantasy football analyst failed to add how important the potential 12th rushing yard could've been.

10.3 yards per carry. Jamaal "Give Me the Ball" Charles' average on Sunday. I once averaged 10.3 yards per carry during an entire season of Madden football.

Reggie! Five catches, 81 yards, and a touchdown. That is all.

The bullet. Take another look at Luck's game-winning touchdown pass. He absolutely rifled that ball! I'm just glad the momentum didn't carry Reggie Wayne out of the stadium. Seriously, #12 fired that thing.

You're not getting it back. After the Chiefs failed at life by running with Peyton Hillis on third and long with less than three minutes left in the game, they punted. The Colts got the ball back, forced KC to drain their timeouts, and then faced a crucial third and ten. Vick Ballard took the ball around the left side for 13 yards. Game. Over.

Drops. Drops. Drops. This was a less-than-stellar performance by Colts receivers. I remember a lot of dropped passes on a day when Luck needed some help.

Rookie records crumble. Luck may get perceptually out-flashed by Robert Griffin III and out-underdogged by Russell Wilson in the rookie of the year race. They have fewer turnovers. They have more rushing yards. They have better completion percentages. But Luck's team has demanded more of him, and he's set rookie marks for passing yards, completions, and attempts. So if he doesn't win ROY--an award I'm guessing he couldn't care less about--he'll have his records. And, again, I'm guessing he couldn't care less about those, either.

Merry Christmas, everyone!