Colts Observations: Divisional Round vs. Patriots

Another bad start. The hole wasn't 38-10 this time, but it seemed just as large. Andrew Luck threw an interception on the Colts' first drive to set up an easy Patriots touchdown. Before you knew it, the Colts were down 14-0 after another short TD run by LeGarrette Blount. The Colts continued to rally until the fourth quarter, when things got ugly.

Foxborough: Where Colts teams go to die in the playoffs. Really, I've seen this song and dance before. A "hot" Colts team goes into Foxborough and gets demolished by the Patriots. Different quarterback, different roster, same result. It's a tough place to win, and to beat the Patriots, you have to play a nearly flawless game. The Colts made too many mistakes.

Turnovers. Just like last week, Luck forced some throws into good coverage, and the result was four interceptions. Three of them were killers (the fourth one came in garbage time when the Colts were down by three touchdowns). The first one came on the first drive of the game. The second one came after the Colts "forced" a safety. I wonder how the game would've played out if they had marched down the field before the half and put some points on the board. The third interception followed Blount's backbreaking 73-yard TD run, when Luck misread the coverage and forced a throw that had no chance. The Patriots scored another quick touchdown to take a commanding 43-22 lead.

Gashed. The Patriots ran the ball 46 times, with Blount and Stevan Ridley getting the bulk of the carries. New England stuck with the run, and Indy couldn't stop it. The running game didn't produce a ton of yards in the first half, but by the second half, the beleaguered Colts were hapless against Blount, a 250-pound battering ram. They surrendered first downs in crucial situations and tackled poorly, no missed tackle more costly than LaRon Landry's whiff on Blount that led to that killer 73-yard run.

Tough day for T.Y. The game came easy to T.Y. Hilton last week, but that wasn't the case against the Pats. Hilton couldn't get on track in the first half as he was pushed around and double covered. He eventually found some space as the Colts tried to rally (he finished with four catches for 103 yards), but also got banged up, getting up and leaving the field slowly on at least two occasions.

And that's Belichick for you. He's evil, but he's a genius. Belichick teams take away the things you do best and force you to do the things you're not very good at. That's why the secondary made sure Hilton was a non-factor early and why New England ran the ball 40+ times. Belichick knew Indy couldn't stop his running game (and also knew his receivers weren't scaring anyone), so the Pats kept pounding the ball. It paid huge dividends down the stretch, and New England held a 35:00-25:00 advantage in time of possession.

Up to the challenge, mostly. While Hilton struggled, I thought the Colts got nice games from Coby Fleener (6 receptions, 74 yards), Griff "GRIFFNATION" Whalen (5 receptions, 67 yards), and LaVon Brazill (2 receptions, 73 yards, 2 touchdowns). The receiving corps helped keep the Colts within a touchdown by the fourth quarter, and if a few things had gone differently, maybe we have a more interesting game in the end. Da'Rick Rogers was a huge disappointment, however. He had zero catches and a couple big drops.

Too many "almost" plays. While the Colts had too many turnovers, they also had too many "almost" plays. Robert Mathis almost got to Brady for a sack-and-strip that would've forced a turnover or made the Pats settle for a field goal. Antoine Bethea almost came up with an interception in the endzone before the Patriots scored their final touchdown. Da'Rick Rogers almost caught a ball that would've picked up a key first down. LaRon Landry almost tackled Blount on that big TD run (okay, I'm being charitable on that one). The Colts almost stopped the Patriots on a drive, but Josh Gordy was flagged for pass interference.

First and goal. I hated the play calling on the Colts' first offensive possession of the second half. They were first and goal at the four-yard line. Their sequence: Donald Brown up the middle, Trent Richardson up the middle, fade pass to Fleener. I would've preferred a play-action pass on first or second down (or the Fleener fade route earlier). The Colts, who weren't exactly pushing the Patriots defensive line around (or anyone else's defensive line this season for the most part), should've also spread the field to give Brown some running lanes. Instead, they tried to win at the point of attack, which is something they haven't done since the San Francisco game.

And let's just punt the ball. With about ten minutes left in the game, the Colts faced fourth and one at their own 29. They ended up punting the ball. At this point, they trailed by three touchdowns and time was running out. I couldn't believe they chickened out here and decided to kick it. If something positive happens on the drive, maybe they make things interesting. If they get stopped, the Patriots already have a three touchdown lead, so another score just piles it on. Punting effectively conceded the game by allowing the Patriots to kill 7:35 of clock on their next drive. Couldn't believe it.

They managed to keep it close. Despite all the problems, the Colts still kept it 29-22 going into the fourth quarter. LaVon Brazill made a couple of great TD catches, Hilton got involved in the passing game, and Luck avoided pressure by stepping up into the pocket. Had Indy managed to prevent Blount's huge TD run, maybe things turn out differently. Maybe not.

Huge pass to Amendola. The Colts appeared to have some momentum after scoring a field goal to make it 21-15. Cam Johnson then dropped Blount at the 12 on a kickoff return, and the Patriots were backed up. The first play on their drive? A 53-yard pass to Danny Amendola, a completion that completely changed field position and led to another Patriots touchdown (and a two-point conversion). Just like that, the Pats were up 29-15. The Colts responded with a touchdown to draw closer at 29-22, and the teams exchanged a few punts before Blount's big run.

Have a nice trip. If a Patriots player trips Andrew Luck, but the officials don't see it, was Andrew Luck really tripped?

Take care of the ball. Stop the run. Close out third downs. These are the things the Colts needed to do to win this game. These are also the things they failed to accomplish. Four turnovers. Six rushing touchdowns and 234 yards rushing on 46 carries. Allowed Patriots 11-18 on third down.

Silver lining? Hmmm... hard to say. This Colts team clearly overachieved. They took advantage of a weak division and had a comeback for the ages to win a home playoff game. They overcame losses to front-line players like Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, Vick Ballard, and Donald Thomas to reach the postseason. They looked like one of the NFL's best when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, and Kansas City. They had head-scratching losses to St. Louis, Arizona, San Diego, and Miami.

What did we learn? We learned this year that the team isn't quite there yet, that Luck has guts but is ultimately human. We learned that spending big money on defensive free agents doesn't make the defense dominant in one year. We learned that you should be wary when a team is willing to give up last year's first-round pick in a trade. We also learned that Luck is the real deal, a man capable of rallying his team and making clutch plays in close games despite an ineffective offensive line and a poor running game. And we discovered that replacing a legend isn't easy, especially when that legend puts up yet another MVP season in orange.

So that's it... another year of Colts football. Two years, two playoff appearances, a playoff win, and two playoff road losses. I'll see you again next season!

Colts Observations, Week 16

"You kiddin' me? Playoffs?" They're in. Unbelievably, unexpectedly, and unfathomably, they're in. The Ghost of Mediocre Seasons Past takes the form of Jim Mora, who delivers the greatest postgame monologue in the history of professional football:



And this is why you lose. Kansas City--a team that battered the Colts all game long with a two-headed running game--decided to go for it on fourth and inches with a quarterback sneak. This is why you lose.

And this is why you lose, part II. Interception returned for touchdown. Interception thrown in the end zone. Fumble in the red zone. Missed field goal. Holding penalty. False start. This is why you lose.

Not their best day. Perhaps the only reason the Colts won this game was because they were playing Kansas City (see above). Offensively, they were out of sync. Defensively, our run defense transformed into "run matadors" (term courtesy Nate Nocton via Tony Latello) who stepped aside so KC's backs could find daylight.

352 and 13. This is how many rushing yards Kansas City ground out...and how many points they managed to score. Perhaps I should've titled this section, "And this is why you lose, part III."

Vontae Davis intercepted two passes. The final box score doesn't note this, but Vontae Davis intercepted two passes. Somebody wrote "pass interference" next to one of them by mistake.

We're going streaking! At one point, Andrew Luck lit up the scoreboard by throwing eleven straight incompletions. He then proceeded to hit 6 of 8 passes on what turned out to be the game-winning drive.

No hand? No problem! Even with his hand wrapped in a hard cast and soft foam shell, Jerrell "The Mountie" Freeman led the team in tackles. Actually, that would feel like more of an accomplishment if the Colts hadn't given up 352 rushing yards.

Could you find one that fits? Brady Quinn's helmet didn't look like it fit. Actually, Quinn himself didn't look like he fit in the NFL either. That's too bad. His fantasy football logline from ESPN: "Quinn completed 10-of-22 passes for 162 yards and two interceptions Sunday against the Colts. He also added 11 rushing yards on five carries." ESPN's fantasy football analyst failed to add how important the potential 12th rushing yard could've been.

10.3 yards per carry. Jamaal "Give Me the Ball" Charles' average on Sunday. I once averaged 10.3 yards per carry during an entire season of Madden football.

Reggie! Five catches, 81 yards, and a touchdown. That is all.

The bullet. Take another look at Luck's game-winning touchdown pass. He absolutely rifled that ball! I'm just glad the momentum didn't carry Reggie Wayne out of the stadium. Seriously, #12 fired that thing.

You're not getting it back. After the Chiefs failed at life by running with Peyton Hillis on third and long with less than three minutes left in the game, they punted. The Colts got the ball back, forced KC to drain their timeouts, and then faced a crucial third and ten. Vick Ballard took the ball around the left side for 13 yards. Game. Over.

Drops. Drops. Drops. This was a less-than-stellar performance by Colts receivers. I remember a lot of dropped passes on a day when Luck needed some help.

Rookie records crumble. Luck may get perceptually out-flashed by Robert Griffin III and out-underdogged by Russell Wilson in the rookie of the year race. They have fewer turnovers. They have more rushing yards. They have better completion percentages. But Luck's team has demanded more of him, and he's set rookie marks for passing yards, completions, and attempts. So if he doesn't win ROY--an award I'm guessing he couldn't care less about--he'll have his records. And, again, I'm guessing he couldn't care less about those, either.

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Colts Observations, Week 15

Bye-bye, division. Listen, the chances of the Colts actually winning the division were slim...but they were real. Now they're just gone.

Stuck with 'em. The Colts haven't been good on the road...and I expected the Texans to blow them out. Instead, Indy played Houston tight. The running game and defense looked playoff-ready.

The Mayor. I've liked Vick Ballard since the preseason. Now I like him even more. He's quick and has some pop when he runs into defenders. Or over them.

Luck running out? Cue the crappy Luck pun for the week. Andrew Luck hasn't looked particularly sharp over the last three games or so. I'm not ready to say "rookie wall" or "league's figured him out," but he's certainly struggling.

Run for your life, son. Sometimes it feels like the offensive line thinks its job is to let people hit the quarterback. Luck got pounded again this week.

Maximum Watt-age. J.J. Watts. Wow. That guy has a motor, doesn't he? It felt like he was Exponential, the Amazing Multiplier Man, able to be in more than one place at the same time. I was impressed (if annoyed).

Quiet Reggie. Reggie Wayne had three catches but was mostly quiet. I wonder if it had something to do with getting whacked so hard early in the game.

T.Y. "Calle Me T.D." Hilton. The rookie provided the only big play for the Colts in the passing game. I really think the Colts should try some more screens with him. He's explosive.

Punted. Sometimes you punt the ball, sometimes the other team blocks your punt and returns it for a touchdown. That play broke the game...and was the pivotal moment.

Injuries. We know, we know. Every NFL team deals with injuries. We got that. For the Colts, it meant a fumble by Mewelde Moore and a missed blocking assignment from Dwayne Allen. Don't tell me injuries have no effect on NFL games. They do.

Let's deal that wild card. The Colts remain in position for a playoff berth. Win against Kansas City this week, and they're in.

Containing Foster. For the most part, Indy did a good job against Arian Foster. He got loose a couple times in the second half before putting the game away with big runs late in the fourth quarter.

Jerrell Freeman. That guy's a tackling machine.

Solid "D"? After seeming so thin on defense to start the year, the Colts are coming together. No one will ever mistake them for the '85 Bears, but I've noticed solid corner play from Cassius Vaughn and Vontae Davis. The linebackers are all over the place. The pass rush hasn't been as dynamic as I'd like, but the run defense has been better than expected. I see flashes of a team defensive identity.

So the replacement officials returned...again. For the second week in a row, the officiating was noticeably horrible in a Colts game. The crew missed an obvious facemask call, a play where Indy ripped the helmet off an opposing player's head, and added a few more bonehead calls into the mix. What gives?

Seeing it Both Ways

The Colts play the New York Jets today in what will either be the start of a great playoff run or the coda to an atypical Colts season. It could go either way...and here's why.

Ten Reasons the Colts Are Super Bowl Bound

1. They're peaking at the right time: The Colts were mired in a mid-season slump that saw them fall to 6-6. They had to win out to make it into the playoffs and emerged as champions of a weak division. However, the way they won their final games was impressive, keyed by a tough running game, hard-nosed defense, and sharp execution.

2. Peyton Manning is postseason tested: Manning doesn't boast the world's best playoff record. However, he's led the Colts to three AFC Championship Games and two Super Bowls. The monkey is off his back in terms of postseason football; he's won the big one. He's the most well-prepared and experienced quarterback in football. Period.

3. Offensive line cohesion: This offensive line couldn't run block or pass protect for most of the season. Even though Peyton was sacked a relatively low number of times, pressure was in his face for most of the season. In the past few weeks, however, the line has played much better. I almost called them "road graders" a few weeks ago, and then thought better of it.

4. Looks like Clark, plays like Clark: Jacob Tamme isn't Dallas Clark, okay? But go watch some of the past games this season and squint. For a brief second, you'll see Dallas Clark making the play or running downfield. Sometimes, Tamme's body language is eerily similar. He's not Dallas Clark, but he's the next best thing available for Indy right now...a speedy, nightmare match-up capable of breaking the big play.

5. They're not scared of New England: You may be able to say this about any NFL team, however you'd be wrong. The rest of the league is scared and intimidated by the Unstoppable Patriots Machine. The Colts are not. They've beaten New England at home and on the road; they've also lost to the Patriots in both situations. These teams know each other like the back of their hands...and the Colts aren't scared one bit. Manning threw three stinking interceptions against them and still almost won the freaking game. Imagine what would happen if the Colts played them and DIDN'T dig a giant hole for themselves.

6. Gary Brackett's "dirty" reputation: After getting a third fine for an illegal hit, Gary Brackett is going to be ticked off. And he's also playing just about as well as I've seen him play. That guy has been all over the field in the last few weeks...and no one is keeping him out of the backfield.

7. Youthful enthusiasm: Over the last couple of seasons, there has been this perception that the Colts are an aging starlet desperately clinging to the last burning embers of their glory days. But changes have come quickly and decisively, and a new cast of young Colts--Tamme, Jacob Lacey, Pierre Garcon, Pat Angerer--is leading the way. They're making key contributions for a team that needed a shot in the arm.

8. Rhodes rides again: Dominic Rhodes has been so good in the last few weeks, even Manning wondered aloud why the team ever got rid of him. Dom and Joe Addai were a great veteran-rookie-one-two punch in 2006. Rhodes' return in 2008 was unspectacular, but this year he's rejuvenated, bringing some much-needed toughness to the running game and the team in general.

9. Echoes of the past: The Colts are a three seed, just like they were when they won the Super Bowl. They stumbled at times during the regular season, just like they did when they won the Super Bowl. They'll have to win a road game against a run-oriented, defense-first team from the AFC North, just like they did when they won the Super Bowl.

10. Veteran presence: With guys like Manning, Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, Antoine Bethea, Brackett, Ryan Diem, Addai, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Rhodes on the roster, the Colts are well-stocked with smart, consistent, and talented players who've been there before. They've played on the biggest stage and won; they've played on national TV and won; they've done it on the road with defense and mistake-free football.

Ten Reasons the Colts Are Finished

1. The injury bug: Even with the league's best QB, the Colts are simply missing too many key parts. We all know about Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, but what about Clint Session, Jerraud Powers, Melvin Bullitt, Jamie Silva, and Kelvin Hayden? They're not healthy on either side of the ball, and when it's crunch time, do you really trust Blair White or Justin Tryon?

2. Tall order: If the playoffs shake out as expected, the Colts will have to win road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Not only would they have to go through the conference's top two seeds, they would have to do it outdoors in weather that neutralizes their speed advantage.

3. Leaky secondary: Mediocre passers like David Garrard, Jason Campbell, and Kerry Collins lit up the Colts secondary during the last part of the season. While the D was great against the run, no one will hesitate to attack guys like Aaron Francisco, Justin Tryon, Mike Richardson, Mike Newton, and Cornelius Brown. There's a lot of pressure on these guys, especially if teams max-protect to keep Freeney and Mathis from going wild.

3a. Special concern: This is related to a couple of other points I've already made, but injuries have taken their toll on the team and a lot of players are either new or taking on expanded roles. Kickoff and punt coverage has been pretty shaky in this latter part of the season.

4. Protecting Peyton: The offensive line experienced a series of constant shakeups this season and pass protection has been spotty. Manning has been knocked around more than I've ever seen him get knocked around. It's accelerated the clock in his head, led to misreads, and resulted in poor throws and turnovers.

5. Sluggish start: Manning isn't the same quarterback in the playoffs...and this season, the Colts have had a tendency to get off to sluggish starts. That's a deadly trait to have in the playoffs, when the pressure jumps and players tighten up when things go south.

6. The Patriots are unbeatable: Sure, they lost to the Cleveland Browns, but the Pats have been winning in dominating fashion since Thanksgiving. They're playing their best football of the year at the most important time of the year. They're leading the league with a +28 in turnover ratio. Check out their domination since de-clawing the Lions:

@ Lions 45-24 W
vs Jets 45-3 W
@ Bears 36-7 W
vs Packers 31-27 W
@ Bills 34-3 W
vs Dolphins 38-7 W

7. The Jets are hungry: The Jets excited the NFL with an unexpected run to the AFC Championship Game last year, but it felt to many like they had a little too much success, too early. This is their year, with a more experienced Mark Sanchez, a great complement to Darrelle Revis in Antonio Cromartie, a rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson, a healthy Shonn Greene, and a great addition to the offense in Santonio Holmes.

8. They lucked into a division championship: The AFC South was supposed to be the most competitive division in football, with the Colts, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and Jacksonville Jaguars all bludgeoning one another into oblivion. It kind of happened that way, but all teams lost games they should've won, the Titans' Vince Young finally went batty, the Texans taught a predictable course in self-destruction, and the Jaguars used a befuddling timeout by Jim Caldwell to kick their way into the division lead. While the Colts took control late in the season, the Jaguars simply weren't up to the task, and the Texans and Titans were playoff non-factors.

9. Evil Peyton: For an amazing span of three games, Manning was his own worst enemy, throwing 11 interceptions against the Patriots, Chargers, and Cowboys. Four of those interceptions were returned for touchdowns. If Evil Peyton returns for any span in the playoffs, the Colts are done.

10. Turnovers: The Colts are -4 on the season in terms of turnover ratio, a far cry from +2 last year, +9 in 2008, +18 in 2007, and +7 in 2006. Their defense can't force key turnovers like they have in past seasons, and their offense makes too many mistakes.

Not off the press, Second Edition

When the Colts played the Jets last year, I made a series of front pages for the Indianapolis Star with possible headlines for the game. I did the same thing this year...and made them even bigger.

Which one do you think tells the story?